Block chains and real money

MD: Transparency in the “money creation” part of a proper MOE process is crucial to its acceptance, discipline, and efficient and effective operation. Many eyes on the traders making the trading promise and getting them certified … i.e. creating money keeps those traders honest. Many eyes on the traders delivery or the process’ mitigation of defaults is also crucial to the process.
Transparency into the trader’s responsible (or irresponsible) trading history is crucial for provision for efficient mitigation of defaults with immediate interest collections. It’s an actuarial process if it is to be fair.
The universally shared ledger (enabled by block chain technology) will be enormously helpful to any “real” MOE process. The Bitcoin mechanism is nonsense … but that should not cast a shadow on blockchains … only on the ridiculous Bitcoin mining process to create new blocks. New blocks must be created at zero cost to be employed in a real MOE process.

EY teams with Microsoft, Maersk to use blockchain for marine insurance

  • Blockchain will be used to take paper out of the marine insurance equation

MD: A “real” MOE process isn’t so concerned with paper as it is with transparency.

  • EY has worked closely with blockchain developer Guardtime
  • Microsoft and Maersk are among firms to join the collaboration

A crane loads a shipping container branded AP Moller-Maersk A/S onto the freight ship. The company fell victim to a widespread cyberattack on June 27, 2017.

Balint Porneczi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A crane loads a shipping container branded AP Moller-Maersk A/S onto the freight ship. The company fell victim to a widespread cyberattack on June 27, 2017.

Accounting giant EY said Wednesday that it plans to launch the first blockchain platform for marine insurance, alongside Microsoft, A.P Moller-Maersk and others.

The distributed ledger will be used to capture information about shipments, risk and liability, and to help firms comply with insurance regulations.

MD: I am presuming this distributed ledger is transparent to everyone. That is probably an incorrect presumption. At the very least, it needs to be transparent to all the players.

It will also ensure transparency across an interconnected network of clients, brokers, insurers and other third parties.

EY explained that its decision to secure marine insurance data with blockchain was due to a “complete inefficiency” in the sector.

MD: What makes it so inefficient? How does blockchain make it more efficient? If they have inefficiency problems, they need to fix them first.

“The reason we chose marine (insurance) as the starting point for this sort of market is mainly because of its complete inefficiency,” Shaun Crawford, global insurance leader at EY, told CNBC via phone earlier this week ahead of the announcement.

Crawford said the industry was “over capacity” and that there was “a lot of cost to it.”

MD: I wish he could enumerate the most significant costs.

He added: “It’s facing high administrative burdens of managing and writing claims with a lot of paperwork. All contracts are signed multiple times. They go from ship to ship, port to port, through quite a journey.”

MD: The paperwork could easily be removed without a distributed ledger. Paper doesn’t do anything but impose a requirement for an optical capture of documents for archiving. Most of that is already gone. And if it’s not gone, it needs to go before blockchain can do anything.

Distributed ledgers are groupings of data shared across multiple locations without the need for central administrators and other middle men.

MD: But the real reason is for transparency.

The original blockchain was built to serve as the distributed ledger for bitcoin transactions. But various blockchain experts believe the technology can provide transparency for a multitude of different industries, not just the financial services.

MD: Finally he mentions the operative word: “transparency”. And once they have transparency, they will be all about limiting that transparency.

“We’re not talking about a new currency here, we’re not talking about money. We’re talking about data aggregation,” EY’s Crawford added.

MD: You’re talking about transparency. There may be only two parties and one document in question. That’s not about data aggregation.

Maersk said the blockchain platform would enable the shipping giant to maintain a smoother relationship with the insurance market.

IBM deploys blockchain technology to provide enterprise solutions to food safety: IBM's Brigid McDermott

IBM deploys blockchain technology to provide enterprise solutions to food safety: IBM’s Brigid McDermott  

“It is a priority for us to leverage technology to streamline and automate our interaction with the insurance market,” Lars Henneberg, head of risk and insurance at Maersk said in a statement Wednesday.

“Insurance transactions are currently far too tedious and frictional. The distance between risk and capital is simply too far. Blockchain technology has the potential to facilitate the desired development that is long overdue.”

MD: They have lots of issues to resolve before they can apply blockchain to the problem.

Blockchain could benefit wider insurance industry

Marine insurance has traditionally relied on physical contracts being shipped to and fro, from one port to another, in order to be eventually signed, according to EY.

MD: So how does blockchain effect a signature? If blockchain can do that, any electronic medium can do that. Signatures haven’t been a problem for a very long time. And the method for protecting them (i.e. the notary system ) has always been a pitiful joke.

The global research firm has worked closely with software security company Guardtime to develop the blockchain platform.

Guardtime said it expects to roll out blockchain to the wider insurance industry after its initial marine insurance deployment.

MD: Does it have to mine to create its blocks? Does “proof of work” enter the concept as Bitcoin claims it needs to?

“Initially, we focused on marine insurance as it is well-suited to a blockchain solution as it has a complex international ecosystem, with multiple parties, multiple jurisdictions, high transaction volumes and significant levels of reconciliation,” Guardtime CEO Mike Gault told CNBC in an emailed note prior to the announcement.

MD: Not compared to normal internet email it doesn’t. These problems have already been solved. Transparency is the issue. Insulation from forgeries and mitigation is the issue. Insulation from fraud and mitigation is the issue.

“But down the line we expect it to be rolled out across other areas of insurance markets — as there are clearly shared benefits and attributes. In fact, blockchain can be applied to any commercial or specialty line of business with high-value assets.”

MD: This is really pretty silly. It’s kind of like if they were developing an email system and thinking … hey, other industries might use email too? Ridiculous!

Blockchain built on Microsoft Azure

The blockchain solution was built on Microsoft’s cloud platform, Microsoft Azure.

MD: A true blockchain solution is not built on any platform. The ledger is distributed on any platform and on all platforms. It’s no different conceptually than the internet we have been using since the early 1990’s. This is silly. This is like a long long time ago when we got direct access disk drives. We ditched batch processing with zillions of tape mounts and went to real time data acquisition and access. What blockchain does is make all the disk drives transparent simultaneously.

Cloud technology allows firms to store data and software via the internet rather than locally on a hard drive.

MD: So what? They would be stupid to be using cloud technology. The internet already allows them to access their servers from anywhere in the world. Putting those servers in someone elses building does nothing for them.

A proof of concept for EY’s digital ledger was completed in March.

What is Blockchain?  

“When we built the proof of concept, we built a prototype on Azure to make sure the whole thing worked and is secure, and now what we’re doing is building it,” EY’s Crawford noted.

MD: They have to be joking!They proved security? You don’t prove security until you put yourself out among the thieves and the murderers … and it’s a continual battle ever after.

“We provide that cloud service which we believe is one of the strongest ones on the market, and that’s why we chose Microsoft to work with.”

MD: With a proper blockchain solution, your need for strength goes down geometrically. That’s what blockchain brings to the party. There are guaranteed to me innumerable instances of every record and they are guaranteed to be identical and authentic. That’s what a shared ledger does.

Guardtime said Microsoft’s cloud offered a secure network on which to build the blockchain.

“For any new system to be implemented it needs to be built using the right model, one that is robust, scalable and can co-exist with existing IT infrastructure or systems,” Guardtime’s Gault said.

MD: Then they aren’t building a blockchain process … they’re building a secure multi-hosting process. We’ve had that for a few decades now.

“That’s what Azure and the cloud technology enables us to do, without comprising performance or flexibility, which is why it was so important to partner with Microsoft.”

Mark Russinovish, chief technology officer at Microsoft Azure, said that blockchain had the potential to be “transformational.”

MD: If that transformation takes place, from this description, Russinovish is out of a job … and Azure goes into the bit bucket. And that will be the case when the obvious becomes apparent to them and everyone else. Blockchain obviates the need for the cloud concept completely. In fact, there never was a need for the cloud concept.

“Microsoft believes blockchain is a transformational technology with the ability to significantly reduce the friction of doing business, especially streamlining business processes shared across multiple organizations,” he said.

He added: “Marine insurance is a prime example of a complex business process that can be optimized with blockchain.”

MD: Looks like they cut and pasted twice. Are they going to say it three times … like they do telephone numbers in advertisements?

Insurers MS Amlin and XL Catlin also collaborated with EY on the project, as well as insurance industry body ACORD (Association for Cooperative Operations Research and Development).

The blockchain solution is set to be implemented from January 2018 onwards.

The race to create large distributed ledger network has become increasingly competitive.

MD: Why? To be truly distributed, it needs to be replicated across multiple competitors. They all have to be on the same playing field.

IBM for instance announced it would partner with food giants like Nestle and Unilever in August, and use blockchain technology to trace the movements of food to avoid tackle contamination faster.

MD: Blockchain doesn’t do that any faster than they can do it right now. In fact, they probably don’t want transparency in that case … but when customers learn such transparency is possible (probably introduced by competitors), they will have to comply … or leave the business. If food can be contaminated, customers want the transparency to see it and protect themselves. They don’t want it hidden from them.

EY told CNBC that its decision to make the announcement ahead of time was due to a host of other players making similar moves.

Cafe Hayek: in Complexity & Emergence, Economics, Hayek, Philosophy of Freedom

 

MD: This article illustrates how poorly the Mises Monks write. It also illustrates how they analyze a problem to death … totally failing to recognize that the problem they are analyzing is totally irrelevant.

Quotation of the Day…

by Don Boudreaux on September 4, 2017

in Complexity & Emergence, Economics, Hayek, Philosophy of Freedom

… is from page 60 of one of F.A. Hayek’s greatest essays, his 1945 lecture “Individualism: True and False,” as this essay is reprinted in Studies on the Abuse & Decline of Reason, Bruce Caldwell, ed. (2010), which is volume 13 of the Collected Works of F.A. Hayek (original emphases):

To the accepted Christian tradition that man must be free to follow his conscience in moral matters if his actions are to be of any merit, the economists added the further argument that he should be free to make full use of his knowledge and skill, that he must be allowed to be guided by his concern for the particular things of which he knows and for which he cares, if he is to make as great a contribution to the common purposes of society as he is capable of making.  

MD: One sentence … 91 words … no concepts … no coherent thesis … and he mixes two fictions … religion and economics. What’s not to love about the Mises Monks. What it does seem to properly say is: A society must be very advanced for an economist to be perceived of value. No society can get large enough for an economist to “really” be of value.

Their main problem was how these limited concerns, which did in fact determine people’s actions, could be made effective inducements to cause them voluntarily to contribute as much as possible to needs which lay outside the range of their vision.  

MD: See what I mean about analyzing a problem to death … a problem that is irrelevant? I guarantee you, in the olden days before anyone could even say “economist” or “christian”, someone struggling with a tree branch too large for them to place would immediately get help from another human standing by. No instruction manual, advanced inbred degree, or analysis required.

What the economists understood for the first time was that the market as it had grown up was an effective way of making man take part in a process more complex and extended than he could comprehend and that it was through the market that he was made to contribute ‘to ends which were no part of his purpose’.

MD: I wonder if the Mises Monks ever stand back and realize: It takes a very very large society indeed to find anything about the Mises Monks to be of redeeming value. If you need sand poured out of a boot, you’re sure not going to go to a Mises Monk … even in an advanced society.

DBx: Here’s Sheldon Richman on “Individualism: True and False.

Cafe Hayek: How much government … how much force.

 

Quotation of the day …

by Don Boudreaux on September 3, 2017

in Reality Is Not Optional

MD: To the “gold is money” folks, reality sure seems to be optional.

… is from page 719 of the 2007 Liberty Fund edition (Bettina Bien Greaves, ed.) of Ludwig von Mises’s 1949 treatise, Human Action:

MD: Mises Monks quoting from their bible.

The essential feature of government is the enforcement of its decrees by beating, killing, and imprisoning.  Those who are asking for more government interference are asking ultimately for more compulsion and less freedom.

DBx: You might believe, as Mises himself believed, that a peaceful and prosperous society requires some minimum amount of government.

MD: And you might believe that the camel requires some minimum amount of his head under the tent.

Or you might believe, as most people believe, that a peaceful and prosperous society requires a great deal of government.  Or you might be a comrade who longs for complete and detailed government design of, and control over, all of our economic activities.  Wherever you stand on the spectrum of “minimum, nightwatchman government to Soviet-style state control,” you must never forget that the ultimate distinguishing feature of the state is its ability to issue dictates that are enforced with coercion.  And this reality does not disappear when state decisions are made democratically.

Every state erects statues to its most successful operatives, flies its flags gloriously high in the sky, conducts its business in imposing buildings, adorns its officials with impressive titles and honorifics, and – above all – assures its subjects that it possesses a superhuman capacity to know and to care, and that it uses this capacity always and only in ways that make the state an indispensable boon to everyone over whom it reigns.  Yet behind all this pomp and fine display are iron fists and spiked boots.

MD: … and money that is not real.

Deviant Investor: Gold: New 2017 High

Gold: New 2017 High


Guest Post from Stefan Gleason, Originally Published on
Money Metals Exchange

Gold’s naysayers and doubters came out in full force earlier this summer as sentiment reached its nadir. The mid-year pullback in prices did, too.

There can be no doubt about it now – gold has broken out of its summer doldrums. On Monday, the yellow metal finally broke through the longstanding $1,300/oz resistance zone to make a new high for the year at $1,316.

MD: Can you imagine how boring this would all be if we had “real” money? “There can be no doubt about it now — real money has broken out of it summer doldrums of 1.000 HULs. On Monday, the ideal media finally broke through the longstanding 1.000 HULs resistance zone to make a new high for the year … and the decade … and the century  … at 1.000 HULS.

Assuming the breakout holds, the next upside target is $1,375/oz, the high point for 2016.

MD: “Assuming the breakout holds, the next upside target is 1.000 HULs, the high point for the millennium.

There are plenty of bullish factors behind gold’s recent upside momentum to continue pushing prices higher in the days and weeks ahead. The gold mining stocks are starting to show relative strength again. And the U.S. Dollar Index appears to have begun another new down leg this week, falling Monday to a two-and-a-half-year low.

MD: Now really. How can these twerps think gold is money?

Another bullish factor is geopolitics. Gold gained a few more dollars in early trading Tuesday morning in Asia after North Korea launched a missile over Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, “Their outrageous act of firing a missile over our country is an unprecedented, serious and grave threat and greatly damages regional peace and security.”

MD: Real money is “never” affected by geopolitics … or any other kind of politics for that matter.

On any ordinary news day, this dangerous provocation from North Korea would be the top story on all the cable news channels. Hawks would be calling on the U.S. to retaliate, and doves would be warning of the potential for millions of deaths in the event war breaks out in the densely populated region.

For now, though, the unprecedented flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey is the Trump administration’s top priority. Early estimates are that the storm has caused $40 billion in damage. Water levels are still rising in Houston, and surrounding areas extending to Louisiana, so the scale of the catastrophic losses stemming from 11 trillion gallons of water will continue to grow in the days ahead.

MD: Real money is never affected by weather calamities … or earth shaking calamities … or run away fires. In fact, that’s when it really shines. Traders will create money (i.e. make trading promises spanning time and space) immediately and begin repairs and rebuilding. They will be unconstrained in creating this money. And they can make promises spanning 5 or 10 years with periodic payments to prove performance and maintain the negative feedback loop. Responsible traders will enjoy zero interest load. And all traders will enjoy zero inflation. Life is good.

Several major oil refineries have been shut down by the storm. However, crude oil production is little affected. Oil inventories are expected to build even as gasoline prices rise (gasoline futures jumped 3% on Monday).

MD: You really have to wonder about this reporting. They reported that the refineries would be shut down for as much as a month. And they reported they’re tapping the strategic oil reserve for crude oil. Now what in the world is that crude oil supposed to do without refineries?

The disaster is bringing Americans from disparate backgrounds and worldviews together, united in a common purpose to help provide relief to those in need. Perhaps Congress will set aside some of its partisan acrimony when it goes back into session next week. Unfortunately for taxpayers, though, outbreaks of bipartisanship are usually associated with emergencies that cause both sides to agree on even more spending.

MD: Somebody (this writer) needs to ask themselves “what is the purpose of congress?”

The political pressure to make sure federal agencies are equipped to handle Harvey relief efforts (which will be ongoing for months) figures to be overwhelming. Conservatives who had aimed to force concessions in an upcoming budget fight may conclude that they now have no leverage to do so.

MD: With real money, the agencies couldn’t do this. They couldn’t create the money to do it because they are deadbeats. They never return the money they create. But with real money the agencies wouldn’t be needed to do this in the first place.

President Donald Trump so far hasn’t backed off his vow to pursue border wall funding even if Congress refuses and a government shutdown occurs. But a government shutdown in the aftermath of a major natural disaster could be a political disaster for whoever gets blamed for it.

MD: The only thing bad about a government shutdown is that we continue to pay the government workers for overtly doing nothing rather than covertly doing nothing. A permanent government shutdown would be oh-so-refreshing.

With so many risks hitting investors this week, it’s no surprise that the gold market is benefiting from safe-haven inflows.

MD: Now reconcile that with your “gold is money” meme!

Silver is benefiting as well. Although the silver market has not yet hit a new high for the year, prices advanced nearly 2.5% Monday to close above the 200-day moving average.

If silver can now start showing leadership, that would be bullish for the entire precious metals complex. The gold:silver ratio currently stands at about 75:1. Gold is still trading at a high price historically relative to silver.

The ratio can move rapidly to the downside when silver prices are surging. That was the case from late 2010 to early 2011, when the ratio dropped from the high 60s to the low 30s. An even bigger move could be in store for those who buy silver now, while the gold:silver ratio is still in the 70s.

MD: I can just picture this writer sitting on the beach and giving us a play by play of the waves coming in. I wonder if he would even move to claiming the waves are money.

Stefan Gleason is President of Money Metals Exchange, the national precious metals company named 2015 “Dealer of the Year” in the United States by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of the University of Florida, Gleason is a seasoned business leader, investor, political strategist, and grassroots activist. Gleason has frequently appeared on national television networks such as CNN, FoxNews, and CNBC, and his writings have appeared in hundreds of publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Detroit News, Washington Times, and National Review.

 

Thanks to:  Stefan Gleason, Originally Published on Money Metals Exchange

 

Daily Bell: The downfall of freedom and happiness:

MD: There is a close linkage between liberty and a “proper” MOE (Medium of Exchange) process. A proper MOE process guarantees liberty to those who use it. It absolutely cannot be manipulated because of the structure of the process itself. Any responsible trader can create new money any time … just by documenting his time/space spanning trading promise … i.e. getting it certified. That certificate (and fractions thereof) then circulate in daily trade as the most common object in every simple barter exchange until he has delivered as promised and destroys the money he created. This guarantees a free supply of money to responsible traders. It guarantees zero inflation of the money itself to everyone using it in trade or storing it for future trades. Knowing this, since this article deals with liberty, lets look for all the issues that disappear if we just institute a proper MOE process.
STAFF NEWS & ANALYSIS
How Society Grew Cold. Dependence on Cold Institutions
By Joe Jarvis – September 02, 2017

The downfall of freedom and happiness: dependence on institutions out of your control.

MD: First sentence out of the box is a misrepresentation. There never was freedom and happiness to fall down from. The system we have always had was instituted by the money changers and their self declared privileges were protected by the governments they instituted.

I’ve always blamed the government.

MD: Institute a proper MOE process and the government issues you blame go away. Are you ready to do that?

Governments start the wars, carry out the genocides, steal from the people. Governments lay the foundation of an unjust society, by creating a hierarchy from the beginning. Some make the laws, and some must live by them.

MD: And that takes money. Money that isn’t there with a proper MOE process. Money that is now supplied by counterfeiting (i.e. inflation) with our improper MOE process.

But the government is only half of the picture.

I always trusted in the power of the free market.

The free market is the true democracy which responds to the people. It is controlled by demand and quelled by consumer pressures. Economic self-interest ensures a proper check on the wealthy from becoming too evil.

But there is no free market on a macro level. There is only the collusion of the government and industry.

MD: With a “proper” MOE process there is no macro level (no planning and control level). “All” money and thus all commerce is created and controlled by the traders and the marketplace. There is no hierarchy of control. Governments and banks exercise no control whatever. In fact, their natural behavior excludes their participation.

They have positioned themselves as the mother and the father of society. How? By destroying the institutions which once stood in their place.

MD: Wrong. They are the only institutions that have ever stood. They just collapse and then replace themselves. It’s a saw tooth function.

The Marriage of Government and Industry

In his book Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harari describes a human transition. Populations went from farming societies inherently based on the sun and seasons, to industrial societies of assembly lines and time tables.

MD: And the farmers migrated freely and naturally. They could obtain a better living in the industrial domain than they could in the agricultural domain … since most didn’t own their land. Owners of the land had no problem in farming.

This caused many upheavals. Warm organic institutions–like family and community–were replaced by cold calculated ones–like factories and welfare. “Most of the traditional functions of families and communities were handed over to states and markets.”

MD: Anyone who has been around most families know they aren’t naturally warm. They are probably warmer in an agricultural setting because they need each other to survive. They “can’t” be independent … so they must be warm.

Of course, this meant dependence on government and industry for survival. The roles of family and community had been outsourced. Now the government would take care of you, and industry would sell you fulfillment. All the structures humans evolved with quickly melted away, or became diluted.

MD: Tell that to Henry Ford. He was a farmer. His family owned the land. He wasn’t interested in farming … but he was very interested in finding mechanical ways to do farming. So he created a factory … an industry. You are flogging the wrong horse here.

Prior to the Industrial Revolution, the daily life of most humans ran its course within three ancient frames: the nuclear family, the extended family and the local intimate community. Most people worked in the family business – the family farm or the family workshop, for example – or they worked in their neighbours’ family businesses. The family was also the welfare system, the health system, the education system, the construction industry, the trade union, the pension fund, the insurance company, the radio, the television, the newspapers, the bank and even the police.

MD: Look at Ben Franklin’s biography. This was not so as often as it was so. They’re flogging the wrong horse.

When a person fell sick, the family took care of her. When a person grew old, the family supported her, and her children were her pension fund. When a person died, the family took care of the orphans. If a person wanted to build a hut, the family lent a hand… But if a person’s illness was too grave for the family to manage, or a new business demanded too large an investment, or the neighbourhood quarrel escalated to the point of violence, the local community came to the rescue.

MD: Wrong. The person died … the business failed … the neighborhood failed. We’ve come to see it is always cheaper (i.e. more efficient) to just let failures fail than it is to mobilize resources to prop them up.

The community offered help on the basis of local traditions and an economy of favours, which often differed greatly from the supply and demand laws of the free market.

MD: Everybody keeps score in their head. Help someone paint their house but find they can’t work you into their busy schedule when yours needs painting … end of helping each other out. And this is the norm … not the exception. Friend is the “f” word.

In an old-fashioned medieval community, when my neighbour was in need, I helped build his hut and guard his sheep, without expecting any payment in return.

MD: Who is this “I” you speak of. It is certainly not you. Pioneers teamed together to raise their barns … because it was the only way to get it done. If they could do it alone, they would have. If they didn’t need a barn themselves, they weren’t helping.

When I was in need, my neighbour returned the favour. At the same time, the local potentate might have drafted all of us villagers to construct his castle without paying us a penny. In exchange, we counted on him to defend us against brigands and barbarians. Village life involved many transactions but few payments. There were some markets, of course, but their roles were limited. You could buy rare spices, cloth and tools, and hire the services of lawyers and doctors. Yet less than 10 per cent of commonly used products and services were bought in the market. Most human needs were taken care of by the family and the community.

MD: This is no different than building a stockade … with no potentate at all. It’s all about going to the next lower level of affiliation to accomplish things you can’t accomplish on the level you are at. And democracy is employed to get this done. And that limits the size of these affiliations to 50 or less. Democracy doesn’t work with more than 50 people involved.

On a small scale level like that, people were held accountable when they leached off the system. Families and communities were also the enforcement structure of this social insurance. Gossip was an important function of accountability. You can bet people talked if someone balked at their duties. The next time they needed something, they might find themselves in a bind.

MD: Ostracizing and segregation are valid methods of affiliating.

But in addition to the obvious replacements like police, welfare, and corporate jobs, there was the matter of replacing the emotional aspects family provided. Governments and industry teamed up to give us a solution.

MD: Industry and government are not on the same team. Money changers and governments are on the same team.

Markets and states do so by fostering ‘imagined communities’ that contain millions of strangers, and which are tailored to national and commercial needs. An imagined community is a community of people who don’t really know each other, but imagine that they do. Such communities are not a novel invention. Kingdoms, empires and churches functioned for millennia as imagined communities…

The two most important examples for the rise of such imagined communities are the nation and the consumer tribe. The nation is the imagined community of the state. The consumer tribe is the imagined community of the market. Both are imagined communities because it is impossible for all customers in a market or for all members of a nation really to know one another the way villagers knew one another in the past…

MD: With the communications mechanisms we can employ today, there are no needs for nations. There can be many small and overlapping affiliations that do everything a nation can do … especially defense. And you don’t have a crust of elites above the rest of the people picking fights with each other in the “national interest”.

Consumerism and nationalism work extra hours to make us imagine that millions of strangers belong to the same community as ourselves, that we all have a common past, common interests and a common future. This isn’t a lie. It’s imagination.

MD: In the final analysis, there is only “traderism”. We are all traders. We have only one purpose in life: being of value. If we fail in that purpose, out life ends and we perish.

Like money, limited liability companies and human rights, nations and consumer tribes are inter-subjective realities.

MD: You mean “like “improper” money”. Proper money has no such limitation.

They exist only in our collective imagination, yet their power is immense. As long as millions of Germans believe in the existence of a German nation, get excited at the sight of German national symbols, retell German national myths, and are willing to sacrifice money, time and limbs for the German nation, Germany will remain one of the strongest powers in the world.

MD: And as long as the tribe we know as Jews can tell lies to change that perception for the rest of the world … well, the Germans and their society are at risk.

But we can keep what we like about government and markets, and do away with what we don’t. We can form new “tribes” that give us actual mutual aid which communities once gave. We can move to or create villages that match our needs and desires.

MD: Iterative secession. It is the logical first step … and second step … and third step … and probably fourth step. Nation -> State -> County -> Town.

That way, we interact with warm institutions. Structures we are a part of and can influence. They are made up of people we know, and have real relationships with.

The government gives us imagined communities in order to control us. Nationalism makes sure we are ready to fight the next war, providing bodies and wealth to fuel political ambitions.

MD: Remember … governments were instituted by, and are tools employed by, money changers. It’s just that simple. Institute a competing “real” money and both money changers and their governments go poof!

The market gives us imagined communities as a way to sell to us. Apple users are part of an exclusive club that signal they are wealthy and hip. Doesn’t that make you feel fulfilled?

MD: And having never bought an Apple product in my life, I don’t subscribe to that nonsense. But I don’t subscribe to the nonsense of religion either … same concept.

But what about a community of people who are all passionate about farming, making their own products, and trading goods and labor? We can keep our smart phones and internet access, just like 10% of the village economies of the past relied on outside merchants. But when it comes to our water, electricity, food, hygiene products, and even entertainment, it is already quite easy to provide all that on a community level.

MD: It is even easier to provide it on an individual level. I’ve done it for 14 years with no difficulty at all.

Now that the world has been so voluntarily centralized by the internet, we can decentralize in ways that benefit us. We can create little communities without becoming hermits. We will be free to come or go as we please, no forced labor, false choices, or communist utopia. Just voluntary groups who offer warm alternatives to dictatorial and industrial institutions.

MD: By instituting UWB (Ultra-Wide Band) at layer 1 and ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Method) at layer 2, we can institute a completely decentralized internet with independently owned nodes. Our phones and computers themselves become nodes in a universal mesh network. They are linked by short run physical and wireless connections. This topology and technology can make a huge number of short hops in a connection-oriented fashion. Our current topology can only make 20 hops in the 1/8 second demanded for voice communication … and thus requires a backbone (carrier owned and government controlled) for the long haul. ATM can make 10’s of thousands of hops in 1/8th second. No backbone needed nor desired.

I don’t want my barber to remove my appendix when I get appendicitis. But I wouldn’t at all mind my neighbor providing my children’s education, with the help of the countless resources on the internet.

MD: Why not provide your children’s education yourself. You could be working from your house unless you work on an assembly line or in the trades … which very few people do. Even assembly piecework could easily be done in the home. And if 3/4ths of the fruits of your labor, you spouse could be the educator. You would get an immediate x4 pay raise to cover the cost.

We are now in a position to meld the best of both worlds. We can reach back and choose what was great about pre-modern community governing structures. And we can hold onto the technology and civilization that we like in today’s world.

Society is like a pendulum which swings from one extreme to another. But each sway loses some energy and brings us closer to equilibrium.

MD: Wrong. There is no naturally stabilizing negative feedback mechanism. The reverse is true.

The advance of industry gave mankind countless benefits. But at some point, it went too far. We need to learn how to reintegrate warm institutions into our lives, without doing away with the benefits that large scale industry has provided.

MD: It hasn’t gone too far. As long as people choose to work in industry as opposed to their other options, it hasn’t gone too far.

In a sense, humanity was once so dependent on small scale warm institutions that we stagnated, and could not advance. People suffocated as the pendulum stopped and reversed.

MD: Nonsense … actually, nonsense to the second or third power.

Once we finally did break free, we lost all touch with warm institutions. Cold institutions replaced the family, and now many feel alienated and depressed.

MD: I am now an institution of one. Am I cold or am I warm?

Can we find an equilibrium? Can we meld markets and governance into family and community life in a way that both frees us from the tyranny of government and corporations, but allows us to remain free individuals?

MD: A proper MOE process guarantees perfect equilibrium of the money. And it is the money that enables trade over time and space. And it is trade over time and space that is the economy. Institute “real” money and poof! Your issues disappear … forever and ever.

The Pendulum is Ready to Swing Back

Radical experimentation in governance is required to heal society and correct the trajectory. Stagnation is the best we can hope for with the current model of government and corporate collusion.

MD: Removal of government is the best recourse. What is it good for? Government workers! Government dependents! That’s it. But then when you know that 3/4ths of the fruits of everyone’s labor goes to government, we’re going to have a little disruption when we tell government to take a powder. The real productive people will see their income quadruple. But the non-productive people … government workers and dependents will see their income go to zero.

We need to restore the community structures of the past. We cannot simply do away with institutions people rely on and expect no turmoil. Rather, a model of a better society needs to be created.

MD: Iterative secession: You have your space and do it your way … and I’ll have mine … and the likes of you won’t want to be in mine … and mine won’t want you to be in it … and that’s just fine for both of us.

This is why the next movement that will drastically improve civilization will be a period of decentralization of institutions, marked by voluntary association.

MD: If you want to drastically improve civilization, institute a “proper” MOE process. Most of your other issues (if not all of them) will immediately disappear. Just consider how many of your issues right now are caused by money changers and the governments they have instituted.

Deviant Investor: Eight Days to Destruction

MD: We here at MD central, are at ground zero +1 from Harvey. We were disturbed very little by the calamity. We were above the flood and could divert the rain. And having gold would not have changed that. Lets observe again why we don’t need the likes of Christenson in our space.

Eight Days to Destruction

Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane on August 25. The wind and flooding caused massive destruction. The news mentioned one hundred billion dollars as a preliminary estimate of the damage.

WD: That’s $25,000 per person (using 4 million population). The population actually affected was probably  1/1000th that. So you would have $25,000,000 per person actually affected physically. When the bullet hits your heart, the damage can be viewed as infinite. This too will pass … and frankly, it will show that Bastiats broken window fallacy gets it wrong. I know many many contractors who were sitting on the sidelines that are now being called into service. And that money they will be earning was not doing anything in the economy before this calamity. When such a small percentage of us really have to work … “make work” becomes a strategy. We need a way to keep score when robots do all the work. We need to create work robots can’t do. Lawyers have been doing it for years … but are now being crowed out by word processors (boiler plate) and artificial intelligence … plus the proof that laws don’t work. First, West Law will show you every statute has been decided every way possible. And with 40,000+ new ones each year, there is no knowing what the law is.

At MD we know it is all about principles … not men … not laws. We start with the golden rule and really don’t have to go beyond that.

Eight days before on August 17 Harvey became a named storm. There was no apparent cause for alarm on August 17.

Two days later it was upgraded to a tropical depression. Harvey reached hurricane strength on August 24. Much can happen in eight days.

MD: Much can happen in 8 seconds … witness the mysterious collapse of WTC7.

  • August 17: Harvey is named
  • August 21: Total eclipse of the sun. The path crossed the contiguous 48 states. Read “Total Eclipse of Sense.”

MD: Don’t bother to read it. It’s nonsense.

  • August 21: President Trump announces a revised and renewed war effort in Afghanistan.

MD: Which changes nothing. Just another lie confirmed … as anticipated. Trump has still not mentioned WTC7. He “is” one of them.

  • August 25: Category 4 Harvey makes landfall, destroys buildings and dumps trillions of gallons of water on Texas. Houston, the 4th largest city in the U.S. flooded in many areas.

MD: Luckily, it hit ground zero at Rockport … which if you ever visited it was a dead community … because of previous hurricanes. The first port in Texas was originally Indianola … which no longer exists. It lasted until the first hurricane after its creation. You don’t build your nest on a highway.

MUCH CAN CHANGE IN 8 DAYS!

SO WHAT?

 

  • Are you prepared for drastic changes in your physical environment? Harvey, Katrina, Rita, and 9-11 show that our world changes, sometimes in deadly ways.

MD: If you are dependent on government or PM (precious metals), the answer is an emphatic “no!”.

  • Are you prepared financially?

MD: Yes. By minimizing finances. Everything is bought and paid for. My toughest task is protecting my real property … which is un-protectable as is evidenced by the IRS putting a lien on its free-and-clear state in just 19 days … with no due-process whatever … after I  told them I couldn’t pay their demands if I wanted to. The RICO statues prohibit my financial support of criminal enterprises. Thank you very much USA Constitution and the rule of law!

  • What will a stock or bond market crash do to your life style and retirement plans?

MD: Nothing. It will make that store of wealth disappear for me … just like it did when the IRS paid a visit. You can only remove your self from the trading field to every extent possible … or you have to be all in and subject to any government encroachment government chooses to employ.

  • Given their extreme valuations, a crash is possible.

MD: Their value is to the gamblers and the duped. Buy raw land. Learn to live on it and from it. Learn to protect it from encroachment (which means invite others of like mind to join you on it and help you expand it … and to arm themselves for “self” defense). Iterative secession will grease that skid.

  • In 2008 we experienced a credit crunch, a destructive event because the economic world depends upon credit. It could happen again.

MD: Wrong. “All” money is credit … because all money represents a promise … and promises are credit.

The destructive event was leverage and failure to mitigate defaults with immediate interest collections. The process was infested with highly leveraged gamblers. An “improper” MOE process is always a house of cards. One card tumbles and the problem cascades.

A “proper” MOE process doesn’t suffer this contagion. If one trader fails to deliver, no other trader (defective processes call them “counter parties”) is affected at all. It only affects new trading promises creating money … and only those by irresponsible traders. It is far far  more stable than any other process.

  • The U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. The U.S. military and the petrodollar support that status. Change is coming.

MD: A proper MOE process has no reserves … let alone a reserve currency. Once instituted, all the worlds currencies will copy it … or disappear from lack of users.

CONSIDER PAST CHANGES IN 8 DAYS

 

Gold Market: From January 21, 1980 to January 28, 1980, (seven days) the price of gold dropped from a high of $873 to a low of $607. Down 30%!

MD: Seems it had a similar dip in 1987 … and took 15 or 20 years to recover. I knew people who bought that really good $800 gold then.

DOW Index: From October 12, 1987 to October 20, 1987, the DOW dropped from a high of 2,505 to a low of 1,616. Down 36%!

MD: That index is totally worthless. Institute a proper MOE process and that index might be of some value. Now …  it’s just a measure of speculation … measured with a rubber ruler.

NASDAQ 100 Index: From March 27, 2000 to April 4, 2000, the NASDAQ 100 dropped from a high of 4,781 to a low of 3,525. Down 26%!

9-11 Attack: Three buildings collapsed at “free-fall” speeds after being hit by two airliners. An official story was created, but let’s not quibble about details. The United States was a different environment eight days after 9-11.

MD: 9-11 false flag … not attack. And the USA government didn’t change. It was just more obviously revealed to be the occupied government it was the day before the false flag. But to this day, a full 94% of the USA population still don’t get it.

S&P 500 Index: From October 2, 2008 to October 10, 2008, the S&P 500 Index dropped from a high of 1,160 to a low of 840. Down 27%!

Hurricane Harvey: A category 4 hurricane was a tiny storm only eight days earlier. Houston will recover and rebuild for eight months, or perhaps eight years following the incredible flooding. Houston, you have a problem!

MD: We had a different model in New Orleans. The areas cleaned out were infested by poor people dependent on government. Normal society would have pushed them away long ago … probably to higher ground. Those areas are now being repopulated by the wealthy … with little better, but far from perfect, resistance to a returning calamity.

In Houston, we earlier had a mayor who was a real estate guy. He was able to dismantle most of the obstacles to improvements of the inner city (and displacement of the riff raff to the periphery … as was the norm before we became over civilized by those who now call themselves “progressives”). Further, insurance specifically excludes “rising water” from covered damage. So those with loses will just plain lose.

But now in Houston they are wealthy … and just as the poor are able to go to wealthy (after winning the lottery or making it as a professional basketball player) and back to poor very quickly, the wealthy have a way of doing the opposite.

Houston will have no trouble like New Orleans had. And Bastiats observation will be proven to be wrong in this era of more people than work (caused by robotics).

Have you noticed, the slums in Rio de Janeiro live up on the hillsides away from the city center. A flood would bother neither the rich nor the poor there … but for different reasons.

Yes, much can happen in only eight days.

 

According to Charles Hugh Smith, “Next Stop, Recession: The Financial Meteor Storm is Headed Our Way

“The next recession – which I suggested yesterday has just begun – will be more than a business-cycle downturn; it will be a devastating meteor storm that destroys huge chunks of the economy while leaving other sectors virtually untouched.”

MD: “All” recessions are business cycle downturns. Business cycles are purposely caused by money changers. It is their farming operation. Remove their control of the MOE process and the problem goes away instantly … poof. Money is properly in perpetual free supply with a proper MOE process. The money changers farming operation can’t work with a proper MOE process.

His description of coming economic destruction parallels the devastation in Houston. If you live in the flood zones, you’ll see vast destruction. Higher areas will get rained on but could be virtually untouched by the massive destruction.

MD: And higher means 50′ higher! Give you a clue why coastal houses are built on piers? Why they have blow away walls underneath the living quarters?

 

WHAT CAN WE DO TO PREPARE FOR FINANCIAL STORMS?

 

  • Self-reliance. Find your own answers.
  • Possess real money. Don’t depend entirely upon the debt based digital and paper stuff that can vanish as quickly as a Cadillac in a Houston flood.

 

MD: He says without defining real money … and being clueless about what real money is, always has been, and always will be. He thinks precious metals are real money. This was proved conclusively in 1965 when they removed silver from the coins. Nothing changed. The quarter dollar coins without silver traded for the same gallon of gas as those containing 90% silver. The silver wasn’t involved in the trade at all! It proved that the money represented a trading promise … not something of intrinsic value. But these PM bugs still pedal their lore … as do all religions which are continually crowded by reality.

  • Minimize counter-party risk and off-load assets that will be destroyed in a credit crunch, debt reset, dollar devaluation, or crash in the purchasing power of the dollar.

MD: There is no counter-party risk with a “proper” MOE process. Is that minimal enough?

  • Possess assets that will be less affected by counter-party risk, a credit crunch, and massive inflation in the supply of dollars. Gold and silver come to mind.

MD: Yeh … and cinder blocks are an even better idea. You can’t build anything with PM. And when people are not accustomed to trading with it … and they certainly aren’t now … your education (indoctrination) problem will extend far beyond the calamity.

MD: Anyone who has carried a bag of dog food knows that isn’t a bag of dog food.

  • Otis (the dog) relied upon himself, knew what he needed, and did what was necessary. A bag of food was his “gold” in the storm.

MD: Anyone who has fed a dog knows they will eat all you put out there for them. They will eat until they can eat no more … which is two or three times what they should regularly eat. Left to themselves, you can give them 60 days of open food and they will live 15 days and die of starvation in their own dung.

Gary Christenson
The Deviant Investor

Bitcoin bonds

MD: Money Delusions has no illusion for what money is (see right sidebar). Bitcoin, like gold, is a clumsy stand-in for “real” money.

Well, it looks like they’re taking it a step further. On the one hand, they’re trying to give it stability while on the other hand they’re trying to give it leverage. In both cases, Bitcoin’s foundations are firmly planted in quicksand.

And the allure of Bitcoin? “It doesn’t require trust … there is no entity to be trusted”.

Well, a good way to study issues is to inspect the limits. On one limit, we have no Bitcoins. At that limit, confusion about money remains unchanged. At the other limit, everything is the Bitcoins … and just looking at the algorithm this limits the number … thus infinite value is at the upper limit. Traders (like you and me) can’t trade in that environment. When we promise to trade 360 monthly payments of money for a house today, we want that money to be worth exactly the same every one of those months. “Real” money behaves this way. Bitcoin money does not. Every month, the Bitcoin we must return is harder for us to earn.

Let’s see if there is any wisdom in this article.

Bitcoin bond launch brings digital currency step closer to ‘world of high finance’

  • Fisco, a Japanese financial information company, announced this week a unit of the company has issued a bitcoin bond.

MD: Where are the Bitcoins going to come from when these bonds mature? Where are the Bitcoins going to come from that pay the coupon? Bitcoin is hopelessly deflationary. Thus, buying a Bitcoin bond puts huge pressure on the seller to deliver higher valued Bitcoins when the bond matures. How are they going to do that? And with the value (through scarcity) of Bitcoin continuously increasing, the bond will continuously increase too. Why in the world would Fisco create such a thing? What’s in it for them?

  • The bitcoin bond “brings digital currencies into the world of high finance,” said Dan Doney, chief executive officer of Securrency.

MD: High finance is nothing but highly leveraged gambling. It only works with inflation. It strangles itself with something deflationary like Bitcoin. High leverage is instant death for these gamblers facing deflation … and with Bitcoin, that deflation is guaranteed in exponentially increasing fashion … until it just collapses totally out of self strangulation.

  • The development of bitcoin options, futures and now bonds could help the often volatile digital currency become a better-established asset class.

MD: “Real” money is  not volatile. It is in perpetually perfect supply/demand balance. It is in perpetual free supply. Thus, there is no need for options, futures, or bonds of any kind. How could it be more obvious that Bitcoin is a terminally stupid idea?

Bitcoin's market value tops that of Netflix

Bitcoin’s market value tops that of Netflix  

Bitcoin is getting closer to looking like a traditional financial product.

MD: Oh really? Can you buy a ribeye steak at the super market with one?

Japanese financial information firm Fisco announced Monday it is experimenting with the country’s first bitcoin-backed bond. The news follows other announcements in the last several weeks for bitcoin options, futures and an exchange-traded fund tracking bitcoin derivatives in the U.S.

“I think it’s a very healthy and natural progression of the space,” said Adam White, Coinbase vice president and general manager of its GDAX exchange, told CNBC in a phone interview.

MD: Adam White. Might as well be Joe Jones in searching for what becomes of that idiot and his predictions.

Derivatives products will allow for greater liquidity, better price discovery and lower volatility, White said. “I think products like derivatives or an ETF effectively allow traders to do two things: speculate and hedge risk on the price speculation.”

MD: Why does Bitcoin need greater liquidity? A “real” money process has perfect liquidity. There is no restriction on its supply and it maintains perpetual perfect supply/demand balance … zero inflation. It requires no price discovery. It’s value is permanently in units of HULs which never change. You don’t need derivatives for it because leveraging zero does nothing. You don’t need ETFs for it because there are no exchanges. All money exchanges on a 1 for 1 basis after “real” money drives out all less efficient money.

Bitcoin price 12-month performance

 

Source: CoinDesk

MD: Now look at that! A “Real” money price performance curve is a straight horizontal line … for all time. Why would any trader want to make a promise spanning time and space with a time dependent curve like that? He wouldn’t!

Bitcoin has more than quadrupled in price this year, hitting a record above $4,500 Thursday and notching a market value of $74 billion amid growing institutional investor interest in the digital currency.

MD: Over the same period, any “real” money would have remained at exactly the same price. Traders? What would you rather have? Your trading promise spanning time and space linked to … an unpredictable accelerating object or to a perfectly static object?

Many governments and financial institutions see enormous potential for improving transaction security and efficiency using the blockchain technology that supports bitcoin.

MD: But does that blockchain technology dictate the scarcity Bitcoin exhibits (and cherishes)? If not, blockchain technology would be enormously helpful to “real” money too. Real money requires complete transparency of the money “creation” process and blockchain (if in free supply) would facilitate that.

But the surge in investor demand has also revealed access issues with third-party storage systems and trading platforms that fall short of the more established Wall Street markets.

MD: What is being  stored is just information (ledger entries) … and it’s essentially replicated so can’t be destroyed. The blockchain, being universally distributed, implies no storage at all? It would be an increasingly rare case where “real” money using a blockchain would have to be in coin or currency form which could be physically destroyed.

Bitcoin’s price is also prone to massive swings of several hundred dollars within a day. With bitcoin futures in the works, investors will be able to protect themselves from potential sharp drops in prices through hedging.

MD: Why? “Real” money is certainly not so prone! Why are people using and advocating Bitcoin being so skittish? Remember, it requires “no trust”!

The ability to hedge bitcoin investments paves the way for other products, such as bonds.

MD: Insurance is useless when the insurer is guaranteed to fail.

Fisco’s three-year bitcoin bond was issued by its digital currency exchange unit for an internal trial on Aug. 10, according to a Google translate of the press release.

The bond has a three percent annual interest rate and returns bitcoins when it matures, the release said. The total worth of the bond was 200 bitcoin, or $900,000 at Thursday’s prices.

MD: 3% paid in Bitcoins? Where are those coming from? And they’re only paid at maturity? Thus, a buyer would have to wait three years before realizing he was scammed? With an annually paid coupon, he would know the bond writer was room temperature in one year.

The bitcoin bond “brings digital currencies into the world of high finance,” said Dan Doney, chief executive officer of Securrency, which plans to launch a platform at the end of the year to allow investors to buy stocks using bitcoin. Doney was chief innovation officer at the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency before co-founding Securrency in 2015.

MD: World of high chicanery!

The biggest challenge is “it is very difficult to predict the price of bitcoin tomorrow, let alone a year from now,” Doney said.

MD: … just as is gold. And just like gold, you can be sure it will go up over time. It has to. It is deflationary by design. Next thing they will invent is a dollar / bitcoin cocktail trying to match the dollars inflation with the bitcoins deflation. If they are able to do that perfectly, they arrive at “real” money. Why not just institute “real” money to start with. It is guaranteed to stay real … perpetually in real time.

A bitcoin-backed bond would allow large institutions to store value using the digital currency and potentially be more open to accepting bitcoin as payment, analysts said.

MD: Ah … so they think it’s a storage problem? Why? Because the dollar is inflationary? Or because it might catch fire and turn to ash? Why would large institutions store value as something that is guaranteed to blow up (or more accurately, blow-down) by design?

“It is interesting financial firms are trying to get their arms around the currency and what it can be,” said Brian Patrick Eha, author of “How Money got Free: Bitcoin and the Fight for the Future of Finance.”

MD: If I could get that guy to comment, I would welcome an opportunity to annotate his book. Otherwise, by the title, reading it would be a waste of time.

In early August, the Chicago Board Options Exchange said it planned to launch bitcoin futures as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. That paved the way for VanEck, which sells gold ETFs and other investment products, to file last Friday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a “VanEck Vectors Bitcoin Strategy ETF” that proposes to initially invest in bitcoin futures.

MD: If you can create a fiction like the VIX and trade it, you can create any fiction and trade it. What’s not to love about that? It’s going to become a pretty cluttered landscape isn’t it? Compare that to “real” money. Regardless of how many purveyors there are, they will all trade 1 for 1 for each other. It’s the nature of the process.

The U.S. Commodity and Futures Commission in late July also approved a digital currency trading platform called LedgerX to clear derivatives.

MD: You can make a market in cow dung and clear it. What’s the big deal?

Historically cryptocurrencies “were very much a domain for crypto anarchists and tech-savvy people, and that has changed in the last couple years,” said Niklas Nikolajsen, CEO of Swiss-based digital currency broker Bitcoin Suisse. “This means a whole new ballgame of people are going to get access to the market.”

MD: Right. Like religion changed after they first printed the bible. It just enabled more corruptions and variations of something that was a hoax to start with … something of the sole domain of the monks on high… (and the soul domain of the stupid) .

WATCH: Trader explains when to buy bitcoin

Here's when you should buy Bitcoin, according to one trader

Here’s when you should buy Bitcoin, according to one trader  
MD: Buy until it becomes a trading black hole by self strangulation. Don’t even worry about the buy low/sell high wisdom. It will essentially always be buy high/sell higher. Just before the limit, your return is infinity squared. At the limit, it strangles itself.

Cafe Hayek: insurance against exploitation,

MD: I wonder if Boudreaux and Buchanan have read the Anti-Federalist Papers.  Let’s see if they have clue.

Quotation of the Day…

by Don Boudreaux on August 28, 2017

in Myths and Fallacies, Virginia Political Economy

… is from pages 171-172 of my late Nobel-laureate colleague Jim Buchanan‘s 1987 paper “Man and the State,” as this paper is reprinted in James M. Buchanan, Federalism, Liberty, and Law (2001), which is volume 18 of the Collected Works of James M. Buchanan:

The monumental folly of the past two centuries has been the presumption that so long as the state operates in accordance with democratic procedures (free and periodic elections; open franchise; open entry for parties, candidates, and interests; majority or plurality voting rules) the individual does, indeed, have quite apart from any viable exit option.  

MD: That is a badly constructed … long sentence. It ends “individual does have”. Does have “what”?  And then adds “quite apart from any viable exit option” has nothing to refer to. If it means the individual has a viable exit option to leave the government, he certainly doesn’t. Neither does a state. The Constitution is obviously flawed with its failure to include a buy/sell clause.

Modern states have been allowed to invade increasing areas of “private space” under the pretense of democratic process.

MD: We here at MD of course know that democracy … and thus the democratic process … has no chance of working with more than 50 people involved. And our USA process has 500,000 people involved at our “most” representative level.

From Anti-Federalist Papers #17: Federalist Power Will Ultimately Subvert State Authority:

DBx: People whose understanding of democracy is no more advanced than what they learned in fifth grade believe that the democratic procedures listed above by Buchanan are both necessary and sufficient to ensure a free, open, vibrant, and prosperous society.  And when such people – people such as Duke historian Nancy MacLean – encounter serious discussions of the need for constraints on majoritarian rule, these people leap to the conclusion that those who counsel such restraints are undemocratic enemies of the People.  Whatever you think of democracy, such leaping is a sign of terrific ignorance of both intellectual and political history.  And yet displays today of such ignorance are unthinkingly celebrated in “Progressive” circles as signs of deep wisdom and moral superiority.

MD: Boy is this the pot calling the kettle black. DBx seems to be clueless about democracy too. Earth to DBx! Democracy can’t work with more than 50 people involved!

For democracy to work, the voters must be intimately familiar with the issues on which they are voting. For democracy to function in a republic, those choosing the representative for the next lower level must personally know the person they choose … and that person must personally know them to represent them (the individual being at the top level and himself dealing himself with all issues under his control … like his own welfare) .

Cafe Hayek: Prosecuting price gougers

MD: Every once in a while, even the Mises Monks get it right.

 

Mr. Ken Paxton, Attorney General
State of Texas
Austin, TX

Mr. Paxton:

You boasted today on Fox News that your office, in the wake of hurricane Harvey, will prosecute so-called “price gougers” – that is, merchants who charge prices deemed to be too high by Texas politicians.  I urge you to quit your witch hunt.

MD: Hear hear!!

Because each ‘gouging’ price paid for any item is paid voluntarily by a consumer spending his or her own money – and because that consumer cannot conveniently find that item elsewhere at a lower price – the consumer clearly doesn’t deem the price to be too high.  That is, while the consumer would, as always, prefer to pay a lower than a higher price, the consumer prefers to pay the high price and actually get the item than to save money by going without the item.  Formal legalities asides, why should the judgment of politicians about what prices in the aftermath of natural disasters ‘should’ be override the judgments of on-the-spot consumers about the appropriateness of prices?

Government intervention is often justified as a means of correcting “market failure.”

MD: Government itself is a “sanity” failure. No government at any level, even at the bottom (the individual being at the top) should do anything the level above it cannot do itself. Big government is for wide cooperation … not wide control. The individual clearly is able to make their own decision here … and implement it.

But by enforcing prohibitions on “price gouging” your office causes market failure.  Penalizing merchants who raise the prices of goods and services prevents markets from truthfully conveying an unfortunate but undeniable truth – namely, the natural disaster caused available supplies of goods and services to fall significantly relative to the demand for those goods and services.  By forcibly keeping ‘legal’ prices lower than their actual market values, you not only encourage black markets and other corrupt and corrupting processes, you obstruct the information and incentives that are necessary both to encourage consumers to now use those goods and services more sparingly, and to encourage suppliers from around the world to rush to the devastated areas additional supplies of those goods and services.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA  22030

MD: Congratulations Cafe Hayek. Even the blind squirrel sometimes finds a nut.

Deviant Investor: China has gold; the west has paper.

China Has the Gold, The West Has Paper

Guest Post from David Smith, Originally Published on Money Metals Exchange

Money Metals readers may remember my November 2014 report in which I discussed how gold flowed into China in “tributary fashion” like small streams flowing into a giant one. In this case, the gold has been streaming into China’s increasingly massive thousands-of-tons gold hoard.

MD: Is the same not true for India … whey they use it for making jewelry? If that flow was grain into silos would it be any different (assume nitrogen filled silos with zero leaks)? The point being … gold and grain are just stuff. If a country chooses to hoard it, why are they doing that? It’s not because it is money … because neither are money. And when it hits the fan, they’re going to try to trade their gold for food anyway … so why not just hoard the food? What are you trying to accomplish by hoarding gold. If you have all of it, it is, by definition, worthless in trade. You only have to know what money is for that fact to be obvious. Take it to the limit. If there is zero gold available to traders for making trades over time and space, they’re going to use something besides gold.

In January, 2015, I penned an essay titled “China’s Global Gold Supply “Game of Stones” outlining China’s long-range goal to dominate the world’s physical gold market.

Well, events have moved massively forward since then. I want to update you as to just how much things have changed – and how close we may be to experiencing a “defining moment” in the gold market.

I’m talking about a game-changing event that could, with little warning, propel the price of gold upward by hundreds – even thousands – of dollars per ounce in the space of a few weeks… conceivably overnight! (And since silver’s price movements are highly correlated with that of gold, we could expect an upside explosion in silver as well.)

MD: Would it propel all money in the world by the same factor … or does it just apply to dollars? How about the Yuan?

China’s 4-pronged gold accumulation strategy:

 

First: Buy physical gold in world markets, re-fabricate it when necessary (into .9999 fine bars in Switzerland), and ship to the mainland.

MD: Why do the refining in Switzerland?

Second: Hoard all domestically-produced gold… which is now being done, even when produced from operations with foreign-partners. This is also true with silver production, e.g. Silvercorp Metals – a Canadian silver/lead producer with operations on the Chinese mainland.

MD: Keep in mind there is only 1oz of gold per person on Earth … regardless of where it is located. And the hyperbole of including silver is silly. In aggregate value for silver, there is 1/5 the aggregate value of gold in the world. So we’re talking about 1.25 oz of gold equivalent per person on Earth. Adding silver to the mix doesn’t change the story at all. Recognize hyperbole for what it is … gilding the lilly.

Third: Partner with (e.g. Pretivm Resources; Barrick Gold-Pascua Lama) or buy outright, gold explorer-producers located on foreign soil.

Fourth: Purchase for cash, gold production “off the books” from ‘informa’ miners in S.E. Asia, Africa, and South America. China’s intent is to supplant the U.S. as the largest holder of physical gold (claimed to be around 8,000 metric tons) on the planet. (Disclosure: I, David Smith, have held for several years, positions in Silvercorp and Pretivm, purchased in the open market.)

Right now, China is vastly understating what it actually holds as well as how much is being imported.

This deception is easier than ever because a significant amount is no longer routed (and thus reportable) through Hong Kong, but rather through other mainland entry ports. What the authorities admitted holding as of last summer was almost unbelievably small compared to what even the official figures streaming through Hong Kong alone, plus domestic production add to the total, and China is now the number one global gold producer.

As reported by Steve St. Angelo China has, during Q1, 2017, imported a record 57.4 metric tons of gold to the mainland, from Australia.


Notice the Australian/U.S. multi-year pattern of gold mine exports vs. production

In Addition: A parallel determinant is China’s effort to lessen its holdings of U.S. dollar reserves, by signing infrastructure agreements (denominated in yuan) with countries participating in its massive, long-term New Silk Road project. It’s been reported that China has even approached Saudi Arabia about yuan-based oil sales – a direct threat to the decades-long monopoly of the U.S. petrodollar.

And then there’s this:

The Perth Mint sold $11 billion worth of bullion to China last year alone, and demand continues to climb. Demand is so strong that Perth Mint brings in gold from mines in other countries like Papua New Guinea and New Zealand, and jewelry from South-East Asia that is refined down to the Mint’s signature 99.99 percent gold bullion. (ABC News)

and:

Steve St. Angelo reports that so far in 2017, scrap gold recovery is down sharply, even though the price of gold has risen – an unusual historic occurrence.

His projection for the year? “…as the price of gold has increased in 2017, global gold scrap supply will fall by almost a third, or 32% versus 2010… this major gold market indicator trend shift suggests that individuals are now holding onto their gold rather than sell it for a higher FIAT MONETARY PRICE.”

MD: So far you’ve said nothing of import. You might just have been describing the Hunt’s attempt to corner the silver market of yore.

A Surprising Shock-Rise?

 

Precious metals prices have been in a cyclical decline since mid-2011 – not unlike the last secular bull market in the 1970’s – before gold’s eight-fold rise less than two years later.

It’s understandable that you might meet this latest suggestion of an unexpected, massive rise in the price of gold and silver with skepticism. A rise that could take place so quickly that those who hesitate could not react before prices had climbed far above prevailing levels. Before the supply cupboard had been swept clean. But the truth is – it’s not a pipe dream, not blowing smoke, not wishful thinking. This is not just possible, but increasingly probable.

Everything in life involves playing the odds. If something is “unlikely” but possible, and if that something taking place had the potential of being a “game-changer,” would you not seek to prepare for it in some measure?

MD: Professional gamblers remove the odds from the equation. They totally control them … they don’t “play” them.

A vertical up-move in gold would place you in a tidy profit position, even if you held a relatively small amount (e.g. the oft-touted 5% of your investable assets). So, it’s not necessary to mortgage the house or go into debt in order to “participate.”

MD: This nonsense would make better hyperbole if you were discussing bitcoin. The deflation of bitcoin is a few orders of magnitude greater than gold. And with deflation like that, the utility as money to traders is the same … zero. But to gamblers (and so-called investors) it is a big deal.

I believe it’s almost “a given” that precious metals will resume their secular bull run, which could continue for the next three to five years. If you agree, does it not make sense to begin (or continue) a conservative metals’ acquisition plan? With little worry as to the price where you began?

MD: Well, you are a gold salesman. Peddle your wares. Tattoo artists have convinced lots of people that all those marks on their bodies will bring recognition to them. In the end, it will … negative recognition.

It’s not that difficult. Either buy metals when you have some surplus investible funds, and/or do so on a regular, dollar-cost-average basis. If the “China card” never gets played, you’ll still do well as metals’ prices advance over the coming years. You’ll have been purchasing “paid-up insurance” for the rest of your holdings, hedging more as time goes on.

MD: Buy raw land in a low tax jurisdiction. At least you can camp out there once in a while for recreation.

And one more thing. Don’t think of it as “spending money” on buying gold and silver. You’re simply exchanging continually-depreciating “paper promises” – the enduring term coined by David Morgan at TheMorganReport.com – for “honest money” which has stood the test for millennia and will likely continue for as far as the eye can see.

MD: That’s not too convincing. The gold and silver I bought four years ago does not exchange today for anywhere near what the dollars did that I traded for it. But in the long run you are correct. That 4% inflation leak does take its toll. We went through a period of gold escalation before in the 80’s as I recall. Then it fell like a rock and took 15 years to get back to where it was at its peak. Even with gold, timing is everything. 15 years is a real long time to a 30 year old … and to an 80 year old.

Remember, if you don’t hold it in your hand, you can’t be sure you really own it. John Hathaway, Tocqueville Asset Management covers this precisely, saying,

When the market reverses, the diminished physical anchor to paper claims, concerns over title and encumbrances on central bank bullion, and worries over the drift of public policy will drive liquid capital into gold. However, this time around, it seems to us that the major recipient of flows will be the physical metal itself. Holders of paper claims to gold will receive polite and apologetic letters from intermediaries offering to settle in cash at prices well below the physical market. To those who wish to hold their wealth exclusively in paper assets, implicitly trusting the policy elites to resurrect normally functioning capital markets and economic conditions, we say good luck. For those who harbor doubts on such an outcome, we say get physical.

MD: So that gold I have in GoldMoney.com’s vaults is not safe? I know to get one of their goldgrams from wherever it was and into my hands cost 10% of the value. I had to even pay import duties on it. Even if I had all that gold in hand, it would be sitting on my raw land in the low tax jurisdiction where I live … and frankly I would rather have a little more land and no gold … thank you very much.

David Smith is Senior Analyst for TheMorganReport.com and a regular contributor to MoneyMetals.com. For the past 15 years, he has investigated precious metals’ mines and exploration sites in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Bolivia, China, Canada, and the U.S. He shares his resource sector findings with readers, the media, and North American investment conference attendees.

 

Thanks to David Smith, Originally Published on Money Metals Exchange